[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251756 
MTZ000-251900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251756Z - 251900Z

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NERN MT THIS
AFTERNOON AND AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. HOWEVER...
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. 

AT 17Z...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LWT WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SERN MT INTO SD. SELY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT ARE ADVECTING DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWWD
WITH MID/UPPER 50S COMMON ACROSS NERN MT. ALSO...THE SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND OVERLAID WITH 35-40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOP WEST OF LWT AND ITS RAPID NEWD MOTION SUGGESTS THE
STORM IS ELEVATED. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CAP IS
SLOWLY WEAKENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. STORMS THAT DO BECOME ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING
STORMS...WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

..IMY.. 06/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

47661049 48371004 48970942 48950782 48620585 47180592
46850716 46890947 

WWWW