[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241905 
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-MTZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/ERN WY...SCENTRAL/SERN MT...SWRN SD AND
THE NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241905Z - 242030Z

ISO-SCT SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SEVERAL BOUNDARIES
AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER ERN/NCENTRAL WY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT THAT A WW IS
ANTICIPATED BY 20Z.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER ERN/NCENTRAL WY FROM JUST
WEST OF CYS TO NEAR DGW. ADDITIONAL CU HAS BEGUN TO FORM ALONG
STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE
NWWD INTO NERN WY/SERN MT. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN SELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED SVR
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT DUE TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...RELATIVELY HIGH BASED
NATURE OF CONVECTION...LCL/S GENERALLY OVER 1200 M...SUGGESTS THAT
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
CONVECTION OVER NERN/SWRN SD WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A SEWD MOTION TO
SUPPORT GREATEST SVR THREAT AS AIRMASS OVER WCENTRAL SD REMAINS
COOL/STABLE.

..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

41010512 42080613 43820841 44010896 45060905 45660807
45640639 45420570 44380415 43990371 42830268 41720287
41120309 

WWWW