[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241919 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-242045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED....IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241919Z - 242045Z

SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
IN THE IOWA AREA. WW WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE IT BECOMES EVIDENT THAT
SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE CLOSE TO DEVELOPING.

AT 19Z...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NRN WI SWWD INTO EXTREME SERN
MN AND NWRN IA AT 18Z. CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED
IN STRONG HEATING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S. OMA 18Z SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A PRONOUNCED CAPPING
INVERSION AROUND 800 MB...BUT THE CAP WAS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER ON THE
18Z DVN SOUNDING. SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED IN NRN NEB SHIFTING ENEWD TOWARD NWRN IA. LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE PLUS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND
NON-CLOUDY AREAS SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE 20-22Z TIME
PERIOD WHERE THE CAP APPEARS TO BE WEAK. ALSO...CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED ABOUT 30-50 MI NORTH OF DSM. GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF IA...STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IA AND THEN SPREAD ESEWD.

..IMY.. 06/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

42359586 43059402 43669201 43839023 43438945 42578935
41579022 40999125 40819169 40849331 40869484 41119556
41769635 

WWWW