[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241539
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241539 
MIZ000-WIZ000-241715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF WI....NRN LOWER MI AND THE U.P.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516...

VALID 241539Z - 241715Z

...ISOLATED STRONG STORM WEAKENING IN NRN WI...WHILE STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...

A LONG LIVED SEVERE STORM MOVED THROUGH NRN WI THIS MORNING...BUT
HAD WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST HOUR AS IT APPROACHES
FOREST COUNTY IN NRN WI. DESPITE THE CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS WI...
THIS STORM HAD BEEN ABLE TO FORCE PARCELS THROUGH INVERSION... 
THOUGH THIS PROCESS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURE
WARM TOWARD 90 DEGREES THE INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SURFACED BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ON A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE NRN WI STORM...WHERE A CLOUD
FREE ENVIRONMENT IS ALLOWING FOR INTENSE HEATING AND MLCAPE VALUES
TO CLIMB NEAR 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL BE HAIL...BUT THE WIND THREAT SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..IMY.. 06/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...

44369081 44708964 45828920 46158859 46488775 46458691
45648660 44528775 43899087 

WWWW