[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240442 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TO NERN NEB/SRN-SERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514...

VALID 240442Z - 240545Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN VALID PORTION OF
WW 514 UNTIL 06Z...THOUGH GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NRN-NERN NEB/SRN-SERN SD OVERNIGHT. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED
OVERNIGHT...IF STORM INTENSITY WITH THIS NEW ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. 

04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN SD SWWD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EARLIER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SWRN NEB WAS TRACKING N/NE INTO
CENTRAL NEB.  VWP DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INDICATED A 40
KT SLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB.  WV IMAGERY LATE THIS
EVENING SHOWED ONE OR TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB AND SRN SD PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THE CURRENT
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA.  THIS NEW
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE GIVEN FAVORABLE WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE
OF LLJ.  MODERATELY UNSTABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 06/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...

40379921 40300041 41150147 41240202 41150256 42990199
43440059 44539901 44719740 44599589 43569511 42159569
41409831 

WWWW