[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230347 
NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-230445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512...

VALID 230347Z - 230445Z

THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL TO CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL INTO NERN MT THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. 

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING IS
RESULTING IN A SLOW STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY REMAINED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NERN MT TO SUPPORT A
CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS
THREAT WILL BE GREATEST INTO NERN MT WHERE AN ORGANIZED BOW
STRUCTURE WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS PER REGIONAL RADARS EXTENDED
FROM NRN PHILLIPS COUNTY TO NWRN VALLEY COUNTY.  CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS BOW WILL REACH THE NERN MT/CANADA BORDER IN
DANIEL AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES AROUND 0630Z.

A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING AS STORMS OVER THIS REGION MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A NEW WW SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED
TO THE EAST OF WW 512.

..PETERS.. 06/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

45481095 46581135 47321156 48981003 48970415 48920372
47300428 46400638 45000721 44991049 

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