[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231913 
MNZ000-NDZ000-232015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231913Z - 232015Z

...WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO MN...

BROAD BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS
ND AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED
ABOVE FAIRLY STRONG CAP THAT IS ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...AND MID LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED FROM WELLS COUNTY
ND INTO RAMSEY COUNTY ND...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...YET
IT/S NOT APPARENT WHETHER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AIDING THIS
ACTIVITY.  GIVEN STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE OCCURRING...LOCAL WEAKENING OF
CAP INVOF THIS CONVECTION MAY ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO BECOME
ENTRAINED INTO THE UPDRAFTS.  IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIALLY MORE
ROBUST ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AS LOWER-MID 70S SFC DEW POINTS ARE
OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM.

..DARROW.. 06/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

48979542 47419639 46749816 47509946 48879844 

WWWW