[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230158 
NDZ000-MTZ000-230300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT INTO PORTIONS OF WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512...

VALID 230158Z - 230300Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 512 THIS
EVENING.

NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE EAST OF 512 INTO PORTIONS OF ERN MT
AND WRN ND.

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SWRN
SASKATCHEWAN SWWD TO SWRN MT AND SRN ID...WHILE REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN WW 512 WERE NORTH OF A LINE
FROM JUST S OF GTF TO MLS.  AIR MASS NORTH OF THIS LINE IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY OBSERVED EWD INTO
ND.  THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MT AND MAY SPREAD INTO WRN ND IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.  CONVECTIVE THREAT IS ALSO ASSOCIATED
WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ENEWD OVER THIS REGION AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD FROM ID AND A SECOND TROUGH MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES.

STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS
THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL INTO NERN MT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

..PETERS.. 06/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

45501311 49011012 48980125 48720084 47630114 46440297
46130481 45480762 

WWWW