[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221920 
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-222115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NJ/CT/SE PA/MD/DE/SE NY AND NYC METRO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221920Z - 222115Z

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL INTO THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY INTENSIFY ACROSS SE PA INTO SRN NJ AND
DELMARVA REGION THROUGH 21Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE. A
SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA FEATURES STORM CLUSTERS
SPREADING SEWD ACROSS WRN CT/NRN NJ ATTM...WHICH WILL PROGRESS INTO
THE GREATER NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA IN THE SHORT TERM.
RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGESTS AROUND 1000
J/KG MLCAPE AMIDST AMBIENT WARM/RELATIVELY WELL MIXED AIRMASS.
IN SPITE OF THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODEST PER
LOCAL WSR-88D VADS AS DEPICTED BY 15-20 KTS OF NLY FLOW IN THE
LOWEST FEW KM/S.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION GIVEN
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AND SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE...IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SE PA INTO SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH
21Z. OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
MARGINAL/ISOLD SUCH THAT A SEVERE WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.

..GUYER.. 06/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

41367469 41527294 40937267 39797448 39127605 39407833
40367833 40967726 41177616 

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