[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220715 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-220815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT / WRN ND / NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511...

VALID 220715Z - 220815Z

STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS WW...AND WITH WATCH
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 21/08Z...NEW WW NOT EXPECTED ATTM AS A
RESULT.

MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS ERN MT
ATTM...WHERE SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS.  FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
FAVORABLY STRONG...AND UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING NEWD
ACROSS WRN MT BASED ON LATEST WV IMAGERY AND MODEL FORECASTS.

DESPITE THESE FACTORS...STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO INITIATE ACROSS WW 
AREA THIS EVENING.  NEW STORM HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ROSEBUD COUNTY
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO -- AND BRIEFLY PULSED IN INTENSITY. 
HOWEVER...STORM HAS SINCE WEAKENED...AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
INDICATED ELSEWHERE.  

SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION...THOUGH
CLEARLY STORMS ARE BEING SUPPRESSED -- POSSIBLY DUE TO CAPPING / DRY
AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE AS INDICATED BY NAM / RUC PFCS.  ATTM...WILL
OPT TO ALLOW WW TO EXPIRE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR NEW SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
-- WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW REISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 06/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

49030897 48960227 44770308 45760854 

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