[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222008 
NCZ000-VAZ000-222215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...VA/NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222008Z - 222215Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN VA INTO NC. A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT REGION OF VA/NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS
IN ACCORDANCE WITH MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS SUGGESTS AMBIENT AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG. IN SPITE OF
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /20-25 KTS OR LESS/
AMIDST LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION. OWING TO MID 80S TO LOW 90S F SFC TEMPS...WELL-MIXED
AIRMASS/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NEVERTHELESS SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. A SEVERE WATCH
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..GUYER.. 06/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

38547865 38247708 35727666 35227737 35187905 35798037
36558044 37727990 

WWWW