[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220426 
MTZ000-220530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1422
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511...

VALID 220426Z - 220530Z

POTENTIAL FOR NEW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS TO
BE ON THE DECREASE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...AND WW
511 MIGHT BE CANCELED EARLY IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC AND ETA
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERGOING SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AND
WARMING ABOVE THE SURFACE...INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE 1 TO 3
KM LAYER. THIS AND COOLING NEAR THE SURFACE IS RESULTING IN STRONG
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. GIVEN THE RAPID DEMISE OF EARLIER STORMS OVER
SERN MT AS THEY MOVED INTO STRONG INSTABILITY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DOES INDEED APPEAR TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED. MID LEVEL ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH WRN MT MIGHT
SPREAD INTO NERN MT LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE APPARENT
STRONG CAP IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE THAT NEW BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP IS NOT HIGH.

..DIAL.. 06/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

46290433 46150620 46250836 48770875 49040680 48830443 

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