[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210300 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-210400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...SWRN MN...ERN NB AND WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...

VALID 210300Z - 210400Z

WRN PORTIONS OF WW 507 THAT COVERS A PART OF NERN NEB...SERN SD AND
NWRN IA WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED THROUGH 05Z. THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS
IN THIS GENERAL AREA.

LATE THIS EVENING A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN IA NWWD
THROUGH NERN NEB...SERN SD AND THEN NEWD INTO SWRN MN. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME SRN SD NWWD INTO SWRN MN WHERE IT
INTERSECTS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE IN
THE VICINITY OF AND W OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500
TO 3500 J/KG. THIS AREA IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT WITH NWLY 30 KT AT 5 KM ABOVE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THIS IS
RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY
SWWD WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS WITH SWD EXTENT
INTO NEB...AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN W OF THIS
AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THESE LIMITING FACTORS AND A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT STORMS WILL
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MUCH FARTHER SWD INTO NEB. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 06/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

42659526 41499728 42219863 43849916 44079829 45199524 

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