[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210212 
MTZ000-210415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1408
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0912 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507...

VALID 210212Z - 210415Z

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN MT AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH N CNTRL MT WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

AN ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER CNTRL
AND ERN MT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING OCCURRED OVER THIS AREA TODAY
WITH MLCAPES 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS IN THIS
REGION WITH 50+ KT IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE STORM INITIATION. LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC SUGGESTS A VORT MAX IS MOVING OVER
THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO WRN MT. MID LEVEL ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE
STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME ANCHORED IN THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER E
OF HIGHER TERRAIN...THEY SHOULD BECOME SEVERE WITH SUPERCELLS
LIKELY. SOME STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES AS THEY SPREAD EWD.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL.. 06/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

47010628 46750978 46681226 47951260 48831123 48970653 

WWWW