[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210000 
ORZ000-WAZ000-210200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OREGON / SWRN WA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 210000Z - 210200Z

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU OVER THE OREGON CASCADES AS
WELL AS OVER SRN WA CASCADES. INSTABILITY FIELDS ALONG AND E OF THE
MTNS ARE WEAK WITH MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG.  ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE
MTNS...DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER AND IN THE 50S. INSTABILITY
IN THESE AREAS IS STRONGER BUT COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS
RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

WEAK FORCING DUE MAINLY TO UPSLOPE/TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER N CENTRAL OREGON WHERE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE IS MAXIMIZED. STRONG WIND FIELDS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT FORECAST STORM MOTIONS
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A WLY COMPONENT IF ANY...CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER W OF THE CASCADES APPEARS TO BE LOW. IN ADDITION...ANY
STORMS THAT MOVE WWD OFF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED
ABOVE THE COOLER AIR MASS BELOW AND MAY WEAKEN.

..JEWELL.. 06/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR...

44721852 43712154 43822199 45082223 46642229 47472204
47582091 45521831 

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