[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202338 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-210115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN IA AND NERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...

VALID 202338Z - 210115Z

THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH CNTRL AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN IA THIS EVENING. A NEW WW MAY BE
REQUIRED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF SRN IA AND POSSIBLY INTO A SMALL PART OF
ERN NEB WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

SQUALL LINE CONTINUES MOVING SWD THROUGH NRN IA AT AROUND 30 KT. AT
ITS CURRENT SPEED THE LINE WILL APPROACH SRN END OF WW 506 BY 0030Z.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE FROM S CNTRL
THROUGH SWRN IA INTO ERN NEB WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500-3500 J/KG. 
STRONGEST CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE OVER N CNTRL IA WHERE THE COLD
POOL IS WELL DEVELOPED AND THE LINE IS SURGING MORE RAPIDLY SWD.
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MORE LIMITED ALONG THE WRN FLANKS OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE IS WEAKER. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES
SHOW CUMULUS INCREASING OVER SERN SD INTO NERN NEB...AND SOME WWD
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 06/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

42729689 42499475 42509344 42599246 41049289 40969490
41769655 

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