[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200444
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200443 
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NERN WY AND WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500...

VALID 200443Z - 200645Z

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER NERN WY INTO SERN MT. ACTIVITY IN NERN WY MAY
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO WRN SD. OTHER STORMS MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING
FARTHER WWD INTO S CNTRL AND SERN MT.

ASIDE FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN NERN WY AND ARE
NOW MOVING INTO SERN MT...STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP FARTHER W
TOWARD S CNTRL MT. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A VORT MAX
MOVING NEWD THROUGH SWRN MT OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS. IN
ADDITION...A BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
OVER SERN MT TONIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES MAY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A
SMALL SUPERCELL RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER ROSEBUD COUNTY WITH OTHER
CONVECTION DEVELOPING S OF THIS STORM. ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER NERN
WY HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD NWRN SD WHERE
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STRONGLY CAPPED. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP
A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL...LIFT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
THE CAP AND WOULD PROMOTE ACTIVITY FORWARD PROPAGATING EWD INTO WRN
SD.

..DIAL.. 06/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

44150374 44480692 44870889 46200878 46700800 46580631
45770350 

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