[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200717 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / NERN WY / NWRN SD / SWRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500...

VALID 200717Z - 200815Z

STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE IN AND NEAR WW.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEW WW UPON SCHEDULED 20/08Z EXPIRATION OF WW
501.
 
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS INCREASING ACROSS E CENTRAL AND
SERN MT...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE VORT MAX MOVING NEWD ACROSS
NWRN WY / SWRN MT WITHIN FAST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  WITH STORMS MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...MAIN SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS MARGINAL HAIL.

FARTHER SE...CONVECTION OVER FAR SERN MT / FAR NERN WY INTO NWRN SD
APPEARS TO BE ATTEMPTING TO ORGANIZE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD
POOL.  MESOSCALE CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN BUTTE / HARDING / PERKINS
COUNTIES SD ATTM...WHICH CONCEIVABLY COULD BECOME THE ROTATING COMMA
HEAD OF A BOW-TYPE ECHO.  COULD THIS CLUSTER INDEED EVOLVE INTO A
BOWING MCS...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD INCREASE...GIVEN
FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST N OF SURFACE FRONT.  HOWEVER...THE
FACT THAT THIS ORGANIZATION HAS STRUGGLED TO OCCUR THUS FAR SUGGESTS
THAT WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...WITH LINGERING
SEVERE THREAT CONFINED TO PRIMARILY MARGINAL HAIL.  HOWEVER...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE STORM ORGANIZATION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOUR...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED NEED FOR POSSIBLE NEW
WW.

..GOSS.. 06/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

46640734 47540613 47360349 46770130 45930077 44450142
44020320 44430469 45890731 

WWWW