[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200002 
MNZ000-NDZ000-200200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND THROUGH NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499...

VALID 200002Z - 200200Z

THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER NWRN MN NEXT
FEW HOURS. STORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE ERN PARTS OF WW 499. A
SMALL WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED E OF CURRENT WATCH IF STORMS MAINTAIN
THEIR INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO BUILD
SWWD INTO ERN ND DURING THE EVENING.

A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH ERN AND S
CNTRL ND THEN FARTHER SW INTO WRN SD. A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN SD...SERN ND INTO NWRN MN. ATMOSPHERE IN
VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM
2500 J/KG OVER NWRN MN TO 3500 J/KG OVER SERN ND. THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS BEEN OVER NWRN MN. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY IS BEING ENHANCED ON NOSE OF A
LOW LEVEL JET THAT APPEARS TO BE COUPLED WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
ACROSS SRN CANADA. A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INTENSIFY
FARTHER SWWD THROUGH ERN SD THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY INCREASE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FARTHER SWD INTO SERN ND...NERN SD. IF STORMS
CAN DEVELOP FARTHER SWWD...THEY MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO STRONGER
INSTABILITY THAT RESIDES OVER SERN ND.

..DIAL.. 06/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

48239348 47069509 46059790 46419890 47989735 49419567 

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