[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192217 
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-200015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY / WRN NEBRASKA / NERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192217Z - 200015Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...BUT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S INTO NERN CO AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER.
THERE IS LITTLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT...REFLECTED BY THE
LACK OF PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...AREA PROFILERS AND
VWPS INDICATE 1-2 KM DEEP ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE MTS
/ CO FRONT RANGE WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN ERODED
CAP...CONTINUED HEATING...AND UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
OUTFLOW DOMINANT QUICKLY.

IN ADDITION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD OUT OF CENTRAL SD
INTO NWRN NEBRASKA MAY BE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE REGION IS NEARLY
UNCAPPED.

..JEWELL.. 06/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

39020228 39220399 39560562 40410564 41440547 42070553
42820587 42950245 42520195 41800222 39120215 

WWWW