[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192203 
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY...SERN MT AND WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192203Z - 200030Z

POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER
NRN WY...SERN MT INTO WRN SD. SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP.
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH W CNTRL SD INTO
SERN WY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE HAS SPREAD THROUGH NRN MT AND ND IN
THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A THERMAL LOW OVER WY IS CONTRIBUTING TO NELY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BIG HORNS OF NRN WY...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S
CNTRL AND SERN MT AND THE BLACK HILLS OF WRN SD. SURFACE HEATING IS
FURTHER ENHANCING OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING. THE ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AS FAR W AS
SHERIDAN WY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 J/KG OVER SERN MT/NERN WY TO 2500
J/G OVER WRN SD. A BAND OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW EXIST OVER THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS ABOVE THE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO 40-50
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. TIMING OF
INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

..DIAL.. 06/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

43590319 43890502 44010687 44840774 45680861 46070774
46120579 45420299 44490219 

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