[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192057 
SDZ000-NDZ000-192300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SD AND SRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192057Z - 192300Z

A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST IF STORMS
CAN INITIATE IN NRN SD AND SRN ND THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM WEST OF MOBRIDGE SD
TO NEAR GRAND FORKS ND. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STRONG ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING. THIS MAY ALLOW
TOWERING CUMULUS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF BISMARK TO EXPAND AND
DEVELOP INTO A STORM OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE AIRMASS IS
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG OVER MUCH
OF SD. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IF STORMS CAN INITIATE. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST DUE TO THE EXTREME INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER..LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

..BROYLES.. 06/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

46539837 45329839 43930134 43800228 44560245 45840207
47199916 

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