[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192023 
MNZ000-NDZ000-192200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192023Z - 192200Z

STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN ERN ND AND SHOULD HAVE A LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE ISSUED
ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN ND
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS FAR NW MN. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS GONE
AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FROM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL
LIKELY INITIATE AND DEVELOP BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY
DEVELOP...THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE.

..BROYLES.. 06/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

48859719 47579843 46849734 47899445 48739435 48989560 

WWWW