[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190216 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-190415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0916 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 190216Z - 190415Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 03-05Z OVER PARTS OF SERN MT AND
SPREAD NEWD INTO WRN ND. A SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCE OF INITIATION
EXISTS FARTHER EAST OVER CNTRL ND. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ONCE IT APPEARS
INITIATION IS IMMINENT.

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH NWRN
SD INTO NERN WY. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY EXISTS FROM E CNTRL
ND SWWD TO NEAR BISMARK. THE ATMOSPHERE IN VICINITY OF AND E OF THE
FRONT OVER ND REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG AND
AROUND 1500 J/KG FARTHER SW INTO SE MT WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
COOLER AND DRYER. THE WRN BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY OVER WRN ND THIS EVENING...AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THETA-E
ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE SERN MT PORTION OF THE FRONT.
BOTH THE ETA AND THE RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA THIS EVENING...AND VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING OVER SERN MT. STORMS SHOULD
SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP NEWD INTO WRN ND. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF
50+ KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE
MAIN THREATS.

FARTHER EAST...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL ND...AND THE 00Z BISMARK RAOB SHOWED
ONLY A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FORCING FOR INITIATION HAS BEEN
MODEST. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IF INITIATION DOES HAPPEN...SUPERCELLS
WILL BE LIKELY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO SPREAD
INTO THIS REGION FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.

..DIAL.. 06/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

45320419 44650676 45460771 46500513 48500310 48930120
48619962 46950017 45990171 

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