[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190635 
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-190800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT / WRN AND CENTRAL ND / NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497...

VALID 190635Z - 190800Z

STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...AND MAY SHIFT EWD
OUT OF WW / INTO CENTRAL AND NRN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  NEW WW
WILL BE REQUIRED SOON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL STRONG STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS
OVER SERN MT AND ADJACENT SWRN ND / NWRN SD ATTM...POSSIBLY EVOLVING
INTO SMALL BOW ECHOES WITH TIME.

THOUGH STORMS REMAIN ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NNE-SSW
ACROSS CENTRAL ND...EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT STORM MOTION SUGGESTS
THAT STORMS MAY CROSS THE FRONT INTO VERY UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED
AIRMASS ALONG / E OF FRONT.  WITH LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO VEER
WITH TIME...CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS ACROSS FRONT SEEMS AT
LEAST PLAUSIBLE.  GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS NEAR
70/ AND INSTABILITY ACROSS WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH FAVORABLY-STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WOULD INCREASE ASSUMING STORMS SHIFT EWD INTO AIRMASS OF
INCREASINGLY-LESS-ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MEANWHILE...THREAT FOR
MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WW W OF FRONT.

..GOSS.. 06/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

47880388 48829895 48779710 47299770 45360157 45160658 

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