[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182116 
NDZ000-SDZ000-182345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0416 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND AND N-CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182116Z - 182345Z

INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY EARLY
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU ALONG COLD FRONT FROM
W-CNTRL ND INTO NRN SD...WITH SFC LOW CLEARLY EVIDENT OVER MOUNTRAIL
COUNTY ND. STRONG INSTABILITY IS NOW IN PLACE BUT INITIATION IS
BEING RETARDED BY WARM CAPPING LAYER NEAR 700 MB.

HOWEVER...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS TO FORM.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA WILL BE OVER N CENTRAL ND
WHERE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST.  SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS
STORMS MOVE FARTHER E INTO LARGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER ON THIS EVENING FARTHER
SOUTH...WHEN CAPPING LAYER COOLS JUST ABOVE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN
COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

..JEWELL.. 06/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

50369809 49199843 46929968 45369993 44790142 44700274
45290249 45900224 46670216 47360219 47830250 48210276
48740287 49640207 50949951 

WWWW