[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182034 
IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-182230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182034Z - 182230Z

HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS WRN AND NRN ID
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW ATTM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW ROTATING JUST OFF
THE COAST OF ORE WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A VORTICITY MAX EVIDENT
IN SRN ID. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN AND NRN ID CONTINUING TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A BRIEF HAIL THREAT MAY
BE PRESENT DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS OF -22C)...MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THIS SHOULD KEEP
ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 06/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

42961519 43341650 43981690 46451663 46321433 43771419 

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