[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181955 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-182200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC...WRN SC AND NE GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181955Z - 182200Z

THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS WRN NC...WRN SC AND NE GA WILL HAVE A
HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW.

A LINE OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING ALONG A RIDGE-LINE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN NC AND NRN GA DUE TO SFC HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-TROUGH. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNDER THE UPPER-LOW IS
RELATIVELY WEAK BUT SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG. THE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS THE
STORMS MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...THE WEAK SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
UNDER A COLD POOL ALOFT WHERE 500 MB TEMPS ARE NEAR -15C WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE HAIL AS
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..BROYLES.. 06/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...FFC...

35898010 34978115 33838313 33998358 34598385 35908209
36588089 

WWWW