[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181625 
SCZ000-GAZ000-181830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181625Z - 181830Z

SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS ERN GA AND SC. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH
OVER THE ERN US WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE
SRN EDGE. AS A RESULT...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY WITH
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG ACROSS ERN GA AND SRN SC. THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS NEARLY GONE AND A FEW SFC-BASED STORMS ARE INITIATING
IN ERN GA. AS THE CELLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY...MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
THREAT WILL EXIST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION SHOW LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -11C TO
-13C. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS CELLS MATURE
THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 06/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

31108259 31918309 33378219 34078093 33917986 33057933
31958090 30788164 

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