[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172201 
LAZ000-TXZ000-172300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...N TX INTO NWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172201Z - 172300Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM 30 N MWL TO THE DAL/FTW METROPLEX TO NEAR GGG
INTO NWRN LA JUST S OF SHV. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH
SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THIS FEATURE. INSPECTION OF WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA IS IN A REGION OF NEGLIGIBLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT /POSSIBLY EVEN SUBSIDENCE ZONE/ IN WAKE OF MCV
TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA. THUS...MESOSCALE LOW-LEVEL
FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY WILL BE PRIMARY MECHANISM INITIATING DEEP
CONVECTION.

MODIFYING PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY YIELDS MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG
AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL ON CURRENT PALESTINE
PROFILER...PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND MODEST /I.E. 40-45 KT/
NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/
SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED.

..MEAD.. 06/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

33279839 33319812 33129669 32939535 32319356 31899336
31459389 31479474 31699624 32249815 32629856 

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