[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172041 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-172245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1376
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SRN MS AND SRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494...

VALID 172041Z - 172245Z

A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS ACROSS SRN LA...SRN MS AND SRN AL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST AND SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO NOT
WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL WW ATTM.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD
ACROSS LA INTO FAR SRN MS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID 70S F WITH SBCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD FUEL THE
CONVECTION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER
EAST TX NOSING INTO LA WHICH MAY INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO SUSTAIN A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES REMAINING BELOW 30 KT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT
ISOLATED.

..BROYLES.. 06/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

30798882 31608817 31608766 31218734 30128803 29378917
28899021 29029093 29649241 30189190 29809051 

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