[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171837 
FLZ000-172030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171837Z - 172030Z

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL WILL HAVE A MARGINAL
WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW ATTM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE
SERN US WITH A MOISTURE PLUME DRIFTING EWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MOIST PLUME PARTIALLY DUE TO SFC
HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON
IN FL SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER THE STORMS SHOULD BE PULSE IN NATURE DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE
DUE TO WARMING SFC TEMPS. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
ISOLATED MARGINAL WIND THREAT ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF FL THIS
AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 06/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

25128057 26968223 28388240 28718149 28348069 26668008 

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