[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171516 
MSZ000-LAZ000-171715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...LA...WRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493...

VALID 171516Z - 171715Z

A LINE OF STORMS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS LA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WW
SOUTH OF WW 493 MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED SOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX IN ERN OK MOVING
SEWD INTO THE AR AND LA WITH STRONG ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS LA. THIS
IS DRIVING A CONVECTIVE LINE SEWD ACROSS LA AND WRN MS. THE LINE IS
MOVING INTO 70 TO 75 F DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 80 F
WHICH IS HELPING TO CREATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. AS INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE LINE SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT AHEAD OF THE LINE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND THE LINE MOVES INTO THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS...THE
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE.

..BROYLES.. 06/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

30129114 30909281 31519272 32219205 31819059 30988956
30019008 

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