[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170839 
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-171015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491...

VALID 170839Z - 171015Z

MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WITHIN MCS NOW MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SERN OK /
THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD WRN AR / THE ARKLATEX.  LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN OK PORTION OF WW.

STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN MCS HAVE TAKEN ON A DECIDEDLY MORE ESEWD
MOTION OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...AS INTERSECTION OF AN EWD-MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N TX ASSOCIATED WITH AN EARLIER STORM AND
SWD-MOVING BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MCS MARKS THE WRN EDGE OF
STRONGEST CONVECTION.

UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS SERN OK / NERN TX. 
HOWEVER...STRATIFORM-TYPE RAIN NOW EVIDENT AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE
ACROSS OK MAY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE DEGREE THAT THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AT THE SURFACE DECREASES WITH TIME ACROSS REMAINING
FEW COUNTIES WITHIN WW.  FURTHERMORE...MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS WRN AR ALSO CASTS DOUBT ON THE NEED FOR NEW WW FURTHER E.  IF
PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE HOUR.

FINALLY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ABOVE COLD POOL
ACROSS WRN OK...AS LOW-LEVEL JET PERSISTS ACROSS THIS AREA.  THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH ANY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MARGINAL HAIL GIVEN STABILIZED /
RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER.

..GOSS.. 06/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

35339558 35689492 34669445 34029448 33919550 

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