[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170155 
MTZ000-170330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0855 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT...NRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487...

VALID 170155Z - 170330Z

THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF WW 487
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER CENTRAL/ERN MT AHEAD OF SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN MT. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE DOWNWARD
MOTION AND CANOPY OF CIRRUS CLOUDS/OUTFLOW COOLED AIR OVER SCENTRAL
MT/NCENTRAL WY SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINES MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MT APPEARS
LIMITED.

ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINES SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY
AXIS/MUCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG/ OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH 04Z. NEWD COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE SVR
THREAT FROM MOVING MUCH EAST OF WW 487 BEFORE INHIBITION INCREASES
AND SVR THREAT DIMINISHES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING /AROUND
04Z...WW 487 EXPIRATION TIME/.

..CROSBIE.. 06/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

46910642 49080625 48971034 48631143 47101127 45030720 

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