[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170355 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-170530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491...

VALID 170355Z - 170530Z

CORRIDORS OF 60-70 MPH WINDS WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIKELY WITH ONGOING MCS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

AS OF 0330Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS
WITH EMBEDDED HP SUPERCELLS FROM CNTRL LOGAN COUNTY WWD INTO ROGER
MILLS COUNTY GENERALLY MOVING S AT 40 MPH. 75 MPH WINDS WERE
RECENTLY OBSERVED IN LOGAN COUNTY WITHIN REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT /RFD/
REGION OF LONG-LIVED HP SUPERCELL WHERE AMBIENT WINDS ARE BEING
ENHANCED BY MESOCYCLONE CIRCULATION.

RUC ANALYSES AND MODIFICATION OF 00Z OUN SOUNDING FOR CURRENT
SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER CNTRL/SRN
OK REMAINS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500
J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OF 45-55 KTS
/PER MODIFICATION OF TWIN LAKES VWP FOR OBSERVED STORM
MOTION/...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE FOR CONTINUATION OF
THIS DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 40-60
MPH ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS
/POSSIBLY LASTING UPWARDS OF 10 MINUTES/ WITHIN RFD REGIONS OF
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.

..MEAD.. 06/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

37240008 36939549 33889552 34120011 

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