[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170102 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-170230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 170102Z - 170230Z

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT
APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING OVER WRN AND CNTRL OK OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 0048Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT INTENSE STORMS
OVER SWRN KS...THE ERN OK PNHDL AND NWRN OK ARE ORGANIZING A COLD
POOL FROM JUST E OF LBL SEWD TO N OF GAG TO NEAR ALVA OK. 00Z OUN
SOUNDING INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER CNTRL OK IS VERY
UNSTABLE WITH DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM AND
MLCAPES OF AROUND 4000 J/KG. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SEWD WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LARGELY
ALONG OR JUST ON COOL SIDE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM
INTERSECTION WITH ONGOING STORMS /NE OF GAG/ TO W OF THE OKC METRO
TO THE RED RIVER OVER S-CNTRL OK/N-CNTRL TX. 

MODEST-STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /PER 00Z AMA AND OUN SOUNDINGS/
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE FLOW /VIA
DEVELOPING LLJ OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK/ AND THE MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID FORWARD-PROPAGATION WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND/DERECHO EVENT.

A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS S OF WW
488.

..MEAD.. 06/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...DDC...AMA...

36140031 37060049 37230041 36889838 35339687 34099679
33939768 34139874 34779990 

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