[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162333 
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-170100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS INTO NRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 488...

VALID 162333Z - 170100Z

THROUGH 01Z...POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE GREATEST OVER SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK. THEREAFTER...CURRENT
CONDITIONS SUGGEST AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF A DAMAGING WIND EVENT
OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL OK...POSSIBLY INTO CNTRL OK.

AS OF 2312Z...DDC VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA SHOWED RIGHT-MOVING
SUPERCELLS OVER HASKELL AND MEADE COUNTIES IN SWRN KS...AS WELL AS
NRN HARPER COUNTY IN NWRN OK. MEANWHILE...LEFT-MOVING STORM SPLITS
WERE OBSERVED OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CLARK AND COMANCHE COUNTIES IN
SWRN KS. BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INVOF NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM SWRN KS INTO CNTRL OK REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING
OWING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MLCAPES AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG.
MOREOVER...CURRENT HAVILAND KS PROFILER INDICATES STRONG VEERING
THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL WITH STRONG ANVIL LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS
RESULTING IN LONG HODOGRAPHS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MARGINALLY STRONG...THE VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER AND LOW LFC HEIGHTS 
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH CYCLONIC
SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL TO SOFTBALL SIZE OR LARGER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A SEWD-MOVING MCS LATER TONIGHT
AS INDIVIDUAL CELL COLD POOL/S MERGE AND ORGANIZE. GIVEN OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...INCLUDING DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY ALONG
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PROGRESSIVE DERECHO/BOW ECHO.

..MEAD.. 06/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

38750201 36849563 35159562 37110206 

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