[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162321 
KSZ000-NEZ000-170115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN NEB AND NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162321Z - 170115Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SERN
NEB AND NERN KS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT. OVERALL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. 

AT 23Z...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD
ACROSS E-CENTRAL NEB PER LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED REMNANT 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE ERN THROUGH SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE MCV HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER JUST NORTH OF CNK. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY AXIS...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000
J/KG...INTERSECTS THE EAST-WEST PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
THIS AREA. LIMITED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONTINUATION OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. PROFILERS INDICATE THAT
SFC-3KM WINDS ARE LIGHT...WITH 30-40KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NRN
KS/SRN NEB. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED
CORES CONTAINING LARGE HAIL...WITH CELLS MOVING SLOWLY ESEWD AT
5-10KT WITH MOTION OF MCV AND ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY.

..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

39599866 40039859 40479694 40439643 40299575 39419516
39039534 38789566 38619629 38579712 38669771 38899829
39169850 

WWWW