[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162149 
TXZ000-NMZ000-162315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM INTO WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162149Z - 162315Z

DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
LARGE HAIL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS ACTIVITY CAN ORGANIZE A
COLD POOL.

AS OF 2138Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM
QUAY/DE BACA SWD INTO EDDY COUNTIES IN ERN NM EWD INTO BAILEY AND
COCHRAN COUNTIES IN WRN TX. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A
DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENT LBB VWP AND JAYTON PROFILER INDICATE SLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY ABOVE 4-5 KM AGL WHICH IS RESULTING
IN 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR HIGH-BASED TSTMS /INCLUDING POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS/
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER SHOULD STORMS MERGE INTO CLUSTERS AND
ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...POSSIBLY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

..MEAD.. 06/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

32590450 34070448 35060371 35120273 35060239 34300156
33090140 32230158 31610193 31250252 31090344 31930431 

WWWW