[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162154 
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-162330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN WY AND CENTRAL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487...

VALID 162154Z - 162330Z

CONTINUE WW.

BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES 245/20KT ACROSS CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF MT. LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WWD INTO THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN IMPROVED INFLOW TO ONGOING
CONVECTIVE LINE WITH STORMS ENCOUNTERING MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER 35KT SWLY SHEAR
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED CELLS INTO E-CENTRAL/NERN MT
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 17/00Z.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE BIG HORN
BASIN WITH CONTINUED UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN UPPER
JET. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...IN EXCESS OF 40F...SUGGEST STRONG EVAPORATIVE
COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS.

..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...

43580742 43570937 43571156 46921101 49031056 49090882
49070743 49010601 47780633 

WWWW