[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162008 
NEZ000-KSZ000-162215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1363
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB AND FAR NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162008Z - 162215Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB AND FAR NRN
KS. EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW
ISSUANCE.

WELL-DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...WITH EYE-LIKE FEATURE ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY...WAS CENTERED OVER BLAINE COUNTY IN N-CENTRAL NEB
AT 1950Z. TRAILING SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS AROUND THE ERN
AND SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV...WITH POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS IN THE GRAND ISLAND AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
E-W ACROSS FAR SRN NEB...WHERE IT INTERSECTS NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY
AXIS. THE 100MB MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG
NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER. MODEST LOW-TO-MID LEVEL VEERING ON HASTINGS
VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS THE STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR /AROUND
35KT/ AND INSTABILITY EXIST FOR A LOCALIZED THREAT OF STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS. TRAINING EWD CELL MOTIONS
OF ONLY AROUND 10 KT MAY ALSO RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
S-CENTRAL NEB DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

40870140 41040041 40999975 40969859 41249823 41349790
41179682 40669640 40259622 39849629 39759666 39790041
40040085 

WWWW