[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161954 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-162230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...WRN OK....TX/OK PNHDLS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161954Z - 162230Z

TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND A
WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION SHORTLY.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH REBOUNDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A RAPID INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FROM SERN CO/NERN
NM ESEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN KS AND NWRN
OK. WHILE MUCH OF THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PROBABLY STILL
CAPPED BY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /700MB TEMPS OF 12-14C/...A
NARROW AXIS OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FOCUS FOR
MOISTURE EXISTS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAP ACROSS WRN/NWRN OK. THIS
AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MCS AND EXTENDS NWWD TO
INTERSECT LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SERN CO AND THE OK/TX
PNHDLS. ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF HEATING SHOULD SUFFICIENTLY ERODE THE
CAP TO RESULT IN RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THESE FEATURES.

FURTHER SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY COME FROM LOW-AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS
AREA AT THIS TIME. BAND OF ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL FLOW OF
30-35KT ATOP WEAKER SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. SPC HAIL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THE
ENVIRONMENT MIGHT SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES.
TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR...BUT
MAY BE ENHANCED FOR SUPERCELLS TRACKING EWD/SEWD ALONG RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY WHERE LFC IS LIKELY TO BE LOCALLY LOWER.

..CARBIN.. 06/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

35840079 35970171 36790279 37900277 38120184 37530042
36969770 36489722 35499751 35129824 35439920 35700016 

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