[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161843 
MTZ000-WYZ000-162045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY AND MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL/NERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161843Z - 162045Z

INCREASING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN MT. WW WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MT.  

WV IMAGERY AT 1830Z CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET PUSHING
EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS LEADING TO LARGE-SCALE UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS ERN ID/SWRN MT...AND NW-SE ARC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE SWRN MTNS OF MT AT THE PRESENT
TIME. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THESE STORMS GIVEN AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL MT AND FAR NRN WY. A N-S SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
PHILLIPS AND GARFIELD COUNTIES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S ALONG AND EWD TO
NEAR GGW. THE 18Z GGW SOUNDING INDICATES MUCAPE OF 2300 J/KG AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR LONG-LIVED CELLS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL. MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM HLN TO COD AS IT
ENCOUNTERS GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. GREATEST THREAT
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS S-CENTRAL MT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ORGANIZED ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

45240807 44750790 44440855 44320982 45371150 45981213
46291235 46781207 47341125 48330983 48860872 48950799
48840704 48050683 47320712 45560775 

WWWW