[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161829 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-162030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND NRN/CNTRL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161829Z - 162030Z

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DOWNBURST AND HAIL POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX AND CNTRL LA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND CELL DURATION. WHILE A WATCH DOES NOT
CURRENTLY APPEAR NECESSARY...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

MOST INTENSE CELLS INITIATED EARLIER ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERSECTION NW OF IER. ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DE SOTO TO JACKSON PARISHES IN
NRN LA. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
AND WEAKLY CAPPED WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA SUGGESTING MLCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. AT PRESENT...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS LIKELY
LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION AND EXPECT MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION TO
POSE PRIMARILY AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. THERE IS SOME
CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS BAND OF STRONGER
MID LEVEL FLOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE RED RIVER/NRN TX AREA...SPREADS
ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHERMORE...IF ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COINCIDENT WITH THIS INCREASE IN FLOW...A LARGER
COLD POOL COULD ALLOW UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND/HAIL SITUATION. IF IT BECOMES CLEARER THAT THIS
SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS
OF THE REGION.

..CARBIN.. 06/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

30859136 30839224 30899433 30979563 31559630 31969638
32389588 32329506 32319440 32399365 32349298 32259218
32229184 31989113 31569078 

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