[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 160015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160015 
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-160215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...WRN SD...SERN MT...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 160015Z - 160215Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN WY...FAR WRN
SD...SERN MT...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. PRIMARY
THREAT IS FOR LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.
PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT OVERALL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS
LIKELY TOO MARGINAL FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM NEAR THE BIG HORN MTNS SEWD
ACROSS ERN/SERN SECTIONS OF WY. ISOLATED CELLS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR NERN WY AT 2345Z. SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURES A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS.
UPSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...IT APPEARS FROM WV AND IR IMAGERY THAT
A SRN EXTENTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL MT AND CENTRAL WY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PUSH EWD INTO THE RIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

SURFACE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE NNWWD
THROUGH NERN WY AND SERN MT. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS ERN WY/SERN MT
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000
J/KG ACROSS SWRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THEY INTERACT WITH RICHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LATER
THIS EVENING. MAINTENANCE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AIDED BY WEAK
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER ERN WY AND UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT TO
THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5
C/KM AND MARGINAL SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONG...LONG-LIVED CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL. A FEW STORM
CLUSTERS ORGANIZED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY ALSO CONTAIN MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY TRANSLATES GENERALLY ENEWD AT 20-25KT.

..BANACOS.. 06/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

45140321 44260269 43590231 42980224 42440221 41810224
41270232 41070258 41050300 41050355 41090446 41100519
42110536 42890565 43910636 44800702 45590746 46120754
46570722 46860676 47020586 46850507 46460459 

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