[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 160001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160001 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-160130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1356
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484...

VALID 160001Z - 160130Z

THROUGH 03-04Z...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEVELOP EWD/SEWD FROM WRN KS INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS AND NWRN OK.
ADDITIONAL WW/S MAY BECOME NECESSARY E OR SE OF WW 484 LATER THIS
EVENING. 

CLUSTER OF TSTMS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL CONTINUES TO MOVE/DEVELOP
GENERALLY EWD ACROSS WRN KS AS OF 2343Z...WITH LEADING EDGE OF GUST
FRONT FROM WALLACE AND WICHITA COUNTIES SWD INTO TEXAS COUNTY OK.
ADDITIONAL STORMS /SEVERAL OF WHICH ARE UNDERGOING SPLITS/ HAVE ALSO
RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER GOVE...TREGO AND ROOKS COUNTIES...IN CLOSE
VICINITY TO NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY /MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY/
EXTENDING FROM E OF MCK SEWD THROUGH HYS AND EVENTUALLY INTO CNTRL
OK. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS E OF WRN KS COLD
POOL AND W OF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. MOREOVER...LOCAL PROFILERS ARE
SHOWING RELATIVELY LONG HODOGRAPHS OWING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING
AND MODEST TO STRONG HIGH-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR GOVE...TREGO AND ROOKS COUNTY
STORMS TO MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY
LARGE HAIL...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS
AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH TSTM
CLUSTERS FARTHER TO THE W.

GIVEN OBSERVED STORM SPLITS ASSOCIATED WITH TREGO AND ROOKS COUNTY
STORMS...ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO W
OF WW 484. AS LLJ INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...EXPECT
ONGOING ACTIVITY TO MERGE INTO 1 OR MORE LARGE CLUSTERS OR MCS/S
WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO SPREAD SEWD INTO
NWRN OK...POSSIBLY REQUIRING AN ADDITIONAL WW.

..MEAD.. 06/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

37070146 38250156 39250133 39640080 39989979 39829826
39209767 37879745 36849789 36439867 36229966 36470115 

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