[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 160314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160314 
OKZ000-KSZ000-160445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS INTO NWRN AND N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 160314Z - 160445Z

THROUGH 05Z...POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EWD/SEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL KS/NWRN OK...POSSIBLY INTO N-CNTRL
OK. CONDITIONS OVER NRN OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

AS OF 03Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVY CONVECTIVE LINE
FROM RICE...STAFFORD AND KIOWA COUNTIES IN CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS SWWD
INTO THE TX PNHDL NEAR AMA. NRN PORTION OF THIS MCS HAS STARTED TO
ACCELERATE SEWD AT AROUND 50 KTS OVER THE PAST HALF
HOUR...SUGGESTING AN INCREASED LIKLIHOOD OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER
RENO...PRATT AND KINGMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 04Z.

FARTHER SW...PORTION OF MCS OVER NWRN OK IS JUST BEGINNING TO
ENCOUNTER AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM S OF P28 TO SW OF
END WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN 1500-2500 J/KG. LOCAL PROFILERS INDICATE
THAT STRENGTHENING LLJ IS LIKELY ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW...WHICH SUGGESTS ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD REMAIN
ORGANIZED AND CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AS IT PROGRESSES EWD.

MCS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL OK LATER
TONIGHT. PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHETHER CIRCULATION ALONG LEADING EDGE
OF SYSTEM GUST FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS...GIVEN INCREASING CAP ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS.

..MEAD.. 06/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

36439942 37259918 37759909 37979858 37939797 37349733
36829695 36339721 35939812 35999925 

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