[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151851 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-152045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM/SE CO/NW TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151851Z - 152045Z

DEVELOPING STORMS OVER NE NM AND SE CO WILL LIKELY HAVE A THREAT FOR
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY AS THE STORMS APPROACH WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NNWWD FROM WRN
OK ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN NEB. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F ALONG THIS
AXIS WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS ERN CO AND KS SUGGESTING
ENOUGH SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. THE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY ENHANCE SHEAR JUST ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET
AND HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THE STORMS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING
LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS IN PLACE.

..BROYLES.. 06/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

35700370 36300498 37410511 38160428 38160258 37090167
35950212 

WWWW