[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151613 
OKZ000-151815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151613Z - 151815Z

A HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN
OK. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED
TO WARRANT A WW ATTM.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL OK WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F. SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS
ARE ONGOING JUST UPSTREAM OF THE MOIST AXIS ALONG A BAND OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHICH SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE STORMS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL OK BY MIDDAY SHOW
SBCAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20 KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM. THIS
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 06/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

34599653 34099664 34009747 34299830 34869866 35459882
35999869 36059832 36099749 35399666 

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